The Scottish Conservatives will use their party business slot tomorrow (Wednesday) to call John Swinney’s government to account for “abysmal mismanagement” of Scotland’s finances.
Murdo Fraser, the shadow cabinet secretary for business and economy, will highlight the impending black hole in the welfare budget and the SNP’s failure to promote growth or produce a credible plan to curtail reckless public sector spending.
The Scottish government’s own GERS figures and damning reports from the Scottish Fiscal Commission and other independent experts show the “catastrophic impact” Scottish independence would have on the nation’s finances.
The Nationalists have already had to admit that they must find £1billion in savings to balance the books – but they have no idea how it can be done. Meanwhile, both Labour and SNP governments persist in “economic lunacy” with their hostile position on the North Sea oil and gas sector.
Scottish Conservative shadow cabinet secretary for business and economy Murdo Fraser said: “The SNP government’s abysmal mismanagement of Scotland’s finances has resulted in a huge black hole in welfare spending, unsustainable borrowing and a deficit twice the size of the rest of the UK.
“All this while Scots pay the highest income tax in the UK and see essential services crumbling.
“The Scottish government’s own GERS figures demonstrate that if the SNP achieved their goal of Scottish independence it would have a catastrophic impact on the nation’s finances, resulting in a loss equivalent to almost £2,600 for every single person in the country.
“Meanwhile, the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s damning verdict has been that the SNP government is incapable of living within its means. They said that ministers’ failure to get a grip on public spending threatens Scotland’s future financial sustainability and funding of public services.
“Shona Robison has been unable to say how she’ll make the £1bn savings she admits are necessary. Meanwhile, Scotland’s economy is being held back by a hostile atmosphere for business, excessive regulation, high taxes and the economic lunacy of the Labour and SNP opposition to the North Sea oil and gas sector.”
“SNP ministers must now adopt the detailed plans for savings outlined by the Scottish Conservatives, which would cut taxes and wasteful public spending, reduce the public sector to a reasonable size and direct taxpayers’ money to frontline services.”
Notes:
The Union was worth £2,578 to every man, woman, and child in Scotland in 2024-25. When including North Sea income, tax revenue per person in Scotland was £91 higher than the whole of the UK, whilst expenditure per person was £2,669 higher in Scotland than the UK. This means the ‘Union dividend’, which takes the expenditure figures away from the revenue figures, was worth £2,578.(Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland, 13 August 2025, Link).
Scotland’s net fiscal balance stood at £26.5 billion in 2024-25 – a £5 billion increase on the year before. Scotland’s net fiscal balance stood at £26.5 billion or 11.7% of GDP in 2024-25, a large rise on the £21.4 billion seen the year before. This is substantially larger than the UK’s still concerning deficit of 5.1% in 2024-25. (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland, 13 August 2025, Link).
The North Sea industry continues to play a significant role in Scotland’s economy, with their geographical share adding nearly £14 billion to GDP in 2024-25. Without these revenues, Scotland’s GDP was £212.3 billion, but with them it is £226 billion – an increase of 6.5%. (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland, 13 August 2025, Link).
Scotland faces a projected £4.8 billion fiscal gap in 2029-30. Based on current trajectories, the Government expects spending to outpace available funding for both resource and capital. By 2029-30 resource spending is expected to be £2,624 million higher than funding and Capital spend (excluding FTs) is expected to be £2,146 million higher than government spending. This makes the combined gap £4.77 billion in 2029-30. (Fiscal Update, 26 August 2025, link).
Scotland faces a projected £851 million negative reconciliation in 2027-28, exceeding borrowing limits. The Scottish Budget is exposed to large negative reconciliations in coming years, including a projected £851 million shortfall in 2027-28. While the most recent data shows the gap narrowing in 2024-25 and potentially into 2025-26, the scale of the 2027-28 reconciliation will exceed the resource borrowing limit under the fiscal framework if it materialises. (Fiscal Update, 26 August 2025, link).
The Scottish Government’s civil service has expanded rapidly, undermining workforce reduction targets. Despite pledges to reduce the size of the public workforce, the devolved civil service has grown by almost 60% since 2018-19. Pay deals agreed after June’s Framework for the Scottish Budget also increase the baseline pay bill, meaning further cuts will be required to meet the Government’s target of stabilising workforce spending by 2029-30. The workforce under the Scottish Government’s direct control has risen every year since devolution. (Fiscal Update, 26 August 2025, link).
Social protection spending has grown by 55% in real terms since 2020-21, crowding out other budgets. The only area of Scottish resource spending to see significant growth in recent years is social protection. Driven by devolved social security powers and rising benefit costs, spending is expected to be 55% higher in 2025-26 compared with 2020-21 in real terms. By contrast, spending on education and on public order and safety has remained flat over the past seven years. (Fiscal Update, 26 August 2025, link).